Gameweek 8 - October 3rd

Now, you may be wondering where are gameweeks 5,6,7? I apologise. I have been away in Turkey and have had a few job interviews etc. personal life took over. It isnt a disaster however - The four most valuable bets as indicated by the model wont change as long as i dont feed the model the extra information. So I plan on retracing my steps and doing those gameweeks - it means there will be no under/over data as I cant find historic Bet365 odds for those fields but it will not hurt our test.

Now, on to more important things. First weekend of October. Looking down the fixtures I would say that all but one or two look very difficult to call. So who does the model think is looking good for a result this weekend?

CRY vs WBA - Double Chance Draw/WBA @ Evens

Crystal Palace have a formidable team. Genuine quality through the midfield, unpredictable wingers etc. What this bet highlights is an overreaction by the market to back Palace. Lets be honest, they are likely to finish in 8th. What this means is there are a lot of banana skins they will slip over - this is one of them, and at a good price too. Value of the home win is around -23.9% just to give you an idea of what a bet this is. Palace are good - dont lose sight of the fact that this is a team with 7 home wins since the start of last season, and 5 in 13 under Pardew.

CHE vs SOT - Under 2.5 @ 1.95

Hmm. Well it seems fairly logical I suppose. Massive value - model indicates 23.3% in this bet so lets hope for a 0-0 draw.

SUN vs WHU - WHU to win @ 2.4

Sunderland are muck at the moment - Even Rooney has scored against them. On the other hand, West Ham only seem to score by counterattacking, and have real trouble when they have the ball and have a second to think. In any case, 15.4% value so lets home the Hammers do the business.

NOR vs LEI - Over 2.5 @ 1.75

Norwich?! What are THEY doing here? No promoted teams!!! This is, of course, the first time I have included a bet on a promoted team - I think it is time to see them appear, we have 3 or 4 games as a sample and I believe the games Norwich have played to be representative of both the league and the calibre of this opposition (previous opponents CRY, STO, BOU). So, 16.1% value in this bet- lets do it. Comiserations to the under 2.5 goals AST vs STO which misses out to this.

Predictions in full:

CRY 0-0 WBA
AST 0-0 STO
BOU 1-0 WAT
MCI 3-0 NEW
NOR 1-1 LEI (Which contradicts my tips...I know....remember they are value tips)
SUN 0-1 WHU
CHE 1-0 SOT
EVE 1-0 LIV
ARS 1-0 MNU
SWA 1-1 TOT


Have a good weekend guys.

Happy Hunting,

Aquitis