Gameweek 9 - October 16th

TOT vs LIV - Home @ 2.4

A bet that makes sense on paper. Obviously we lose an indicator as the managerial change function has been zeroed, with this being Klopps first game, but we go for this because of the 12.7% value on a standard depreciation curve.

CRY vs WHU - Double Chance Draw/WHU @ 1.90

Dont like the bet at all, the last bet against palace at home failed miserably but with 18.4% even depreciating the results (20.2% without..) it cannot be ignored

EVE vs MNU - Double Chance EVE/Draw @ 1.66

Interesting bet and one I am inclined to go with given how unconvincing Man Utd look with Rooney having to play every game regardless of form. Strangely only 8%/10% on a standard/depr respectively but remember - United under Van Gaal have a terrible away record. ( 8 wins since the start of last season)

MCI vs BOU - Home @ 1.33

Apparently 12.2% value. I blame that on lack of sample space...

NEW vs NOR - Away @ 2.87

Normally I would give you a double chance but the odds really aren't good enough and the draw drains about 8% of value in a 12% value bet.

You may have noticed I have actually picked 5 results here. I will be excluding the Everton bet from the simulated results because that is the lowest ranked, but i mention it because that is exactly the type of bet I want the model to pick out. At 9% average value, it is still worth doing.

Fixtures in full:

Tottenham 1-0 Liverpool
Chelsea 2-0 Aston Villa
Crystal Palace 1-1 West Ham
Everton 1-1 Man United (or 1-0 depending on which indicator you use)
Man City 4-0 Bournemouth (note Aguero is out...maybe hold back on this)
Southampton 2-1 Leicester
West Brom 1-1 Sunderland
Watford 0-0 Arsenal (apparently a 54% chance on this happening)
Newcastle 1-2 Norwich
Swansea 1-0 Stoke



Happy Hunting,
Aquitis