The season kicks of on Saturday, 8th August 2015. That day will also mark the first published predictions of my model, Aquitis. Aquitis is a statistical based model that is designed to use probability theory to work out value bets. Why value bets? A bet is only worth doing if you think it is more likely than the bookmaker. The best model in the world will not have 100% accuracy - there will be bad weeks. The most important thing is to see where i end up in May. As the season goes on there will be minor tweaks to Aquitis methodology but I intend to keep it the same.
Throughout the season I intend to publish my value bets on the Thursday / Friday, and record my progress in two ways. 1) using a LSP returns record and 2) using the Kelly criteria. Please note that I will be betting on these bets before publishing - obviously if you think the purpose of this blog is to bet on something, publish positive findings, move the markets on an exchange and then hedge then please do not follow my bets. I do not intend to use an exchange or to hedge these bets but be clear - I have placed money on these bets.
Please let me know comments / suggestions. I do intend to publish eventually with a formal PDF but for now I just need somewhere to store results. Who knows - i could be bankrupt by christmas and have no need for PDFs!
One more thing - as mentioned before, no model can predict with 100% accuracy. I am an amateur gambler. If you do follow these tips, bet responsibly and in small increments. Its just meant to be a bit of fun.
Have a good season.
Aquitis.
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