Its been a funny old season. Here we are, 30 games in and results seem to have defied convention. What do i mean by this? Well, across the 30 games so far we have:
Home Win: 6
Draw: 11
Away Win: 13
A draw rate of 37% at season end is unusually high. We normally see a draw rate between 25% and 34% (ill publish this study another day) with an increasing number of draws as the spread of talent in the league becomes more equal. However in reality this is only approximately 3-4 draws more than we would usually see. However 13 away wins and just 6 home wins is very unusual. This weekend we are actually predicting some home favourites are going to continue this pattern and will see a few top teams struggling for a result.
AST vs SUN - Double Chance Sun/Draw @ 2.01
What im about to show you will save you money. It may not make sense and I will do a future blog post on this to explain further, but for now work with me. The bet we want is Aston Villa not to win (it is -18% on the value meter). The bet we want is therefore double chance.
Do not bet on double chance.
Why not? because it is poor value and is for people who don't understand numbers. Double Chance sunderland/draw is priced currently at 1.9. So lets say we bet £100 on this, to return £190 as long as Villa don't win.
Great. Except it isn't. You've just paid the bookmaker because you are lazy. The draw is 3.5 and the away win is 4.75. If you had bet £54.29 on the draw, and £40 on the away win, you would have the following payout table:
Aston Villa win: Return £0
Draw: Return £190
Sunderland win: Return £190
You have therefore reconstructed your desired bet all for an outlay of £94.29. You have saved yourself £5.71 by not being lazy. Ill explain in another post why this happens in further detail. Of course this is completely irrelevant because Aston Villa will win and we will lose money either way.
CHE vs CPL - Double Chance Draw/CPL @ 3.44
A strange bet has caught my eye. Mourinho's home record is famous (9 years unbeaten at home in a row) but with Chelsea out of form and Palace with a great team it is not difficult to imagine Chelsea losing points. At 3.44 and a value of around 22% there are worse bets to take this weekend.
SWA vs MNU - Double Chance SWA/Draw @ 1.75
Interesting that the model thinks that Chelsea, Man United and Liverpool are massively overvalued this weekend. In any case, this bet doesnt pay anywhere near as well as going against Chelsea and Liverpool (both priced up at 1.36 this weekend) but still indicated as a value bet of around 7%.
LIV vs WHU - Double Chance Draw/WHU @ 3.41
Liverpool are at Home to West Ham and its telling me to do the same bet at 16% (model 57% vs bookmaker 73%). On the face of it this looks a terrible bet. West Ham have been awful, their victory over Arsenal aside, and so i am not going to do this bet. Then I am reminded that I am but a mere monkey standing in the way of this supreme machine's power until it learns how to blog by itself. So we have our bets for this weekend.
Thats it for this week guys. Other value bets include an Everton win against Spurs (7.5%), Over 2.5 goals for the same game (5%), Newcastle Arsenal over 2.5 (8%), Liverpool West Ham under 2.5 for (6.7%), under 2.5 for the Chelsea game (8%), and Under 2.5 for the Villa game (5%).
List in full:
NEW 1-2 ARS
AST 1-1 SUN
BOU 0-1 LEI*
CHE 1-0 CPL
LIV 1-0 WHU (see!!)
MCI 3-1 WAT*
STO 1-0 WBA
TOT 1-1 EVE
SOU 1-2 NOR*
SWA 1-1 MNU
*still not including any promoted teams in anything i publish, or when I tally my perfect scores at various points in the season.
No comments:
Post a Comment