Great Value. Martinez has a poor away record - 5 wins and 4 draws last season - while southamptons home record was the best outside the top four. Aquitis predicts approximately a 70% chance of southampton victory, so at those odds you have value of around 19% - making this the bet of the weekend.
Swansea Vs Newcastle - Home @ 1.95
Sticking with Home wins, there is approximately 13% value in the Home win in Swansea this weekend. Ok, so the managerial change bolt on wont give me data, but the other two are flagging this as a good bet.
My only worry with this is that Mclaren has made a lot of squad changes - this is a very different side to the one that played under Frank Carver. Perhaps the bookmakers have put more emphasis on how good newcastle looked last game? I suppose we shall see this weekend.
West Ham Vs Leicester - Home @ 2.25
I know, I know. Given that both managers are new hires over the summer, I have less data to play around with and thus less expect more volatile returns. Still, I cant do as bad as last week huh?! Another Home win, the model reckons a 56% chance in this one so at least 12% value to take out.
Sticking to my strict rule of last week, my final bet SHOULD be Man City to beat chelsea. But i just dont like the big games. I especially dont like going against Mourinho in big games. So now i am torn. Do i put on a bet I dont trust? Or do i find something with less value?
.......
Man City Vs Chelsea - Home @ 2.1
Here goes nothing. Pulling results off of my depreciation curve I get a 59.7% chance of a home win. So thats my fourth bet of the weekend. In reality, Mourinho will park the bus and this will lose. But if the model says so, the model says so.
Right! Thats it for this week guys. Speak on Monday. There was a tiny bit of value in the Arsenal win too and ill go through those on Monday in a Bullseye-torturous like fashion (lets have a look at what you could have won!) but until then, best of luck.
Happy Hunting,
Aquitis
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