Gameweek 3 - Another Failure

Pretty disappointed yet again and i think we can safely conclude that the model isnt working with 0 profitable weeks out of 3.

MNU vs NEW - Home - result 0-0
While Newcastle were never going to win this these are exactly the sort of games I try to avoid - massive odds on home favourite. In truth United should have won as a goal was wrongly disallowed for offside but this was never worth betting on given Uniteds fixtures this season in the league.

Lei vs TOT - Home - result  1-1
As mentioned, Aquitis was actually spot on, predicting a perfect score of 1-1. The model essentially said Spurs wouldn't win, and i made the same mistake that I made in GW1 with Liverpool/Stoke - only this time it was costly.

WBA vs CHE - Over 2.5 result 2-3
The only winner of the weekend.

ARS vs LIV - Home - result 0-0
How this game ended 0-0 I will never know. Arsenal scored a legitimate goal that was incorrectly given offside (I'm seeing a pattern...)

A quick scan of the predictions in full and I see most games I was a goal off. I'll keep this going but its clear I need more data. The only reason I think these bets are value bets is because bookmakers have more sophisticated models than me.

Happy Hunting

Aquitis