Gameweek 2- Steady

So...2 correct and 2 incorrect. Its early season so Im still giving the model the benefit of the doubt but my theory on Value bets doesn't seem to be performing particularly well. Perhaps value bets only seem to be valuable because my model just isnt as sophisticated as the one that bookmakers use? Perhaps my model said southampton had a 70% chance of winning but in reality their chances were closer to the 50% quoted by bookmakers, due to transfers, Europa commitments etc. Still, we wont be able to see the true performance or derive any conclusions this early.

SOT vs EVE - Home - result 0-3

Not a great result. Everton seem to be the most inconsistent team in the league, and this was a splendid performance. The corresponding fixture last season was a 3-0 victory to Southampton (though Martinez did win the fixture at Goodison 1-0 later in the season). Southampton were missing Claise and it showed.

SWA vs New - Home - result 2-0

The model predicted a 2-0 home win (both the basic and time adjusted) with an average % for that exact scoreline 13.3%.

WHU vs LEI - Home - result 1-2

Ranieri's first two games have yielded 6 points to leave them top of the table. It will be interesting to see what happens from here on in.

MCI vs CHE - Home - result 3-0

Wow. It just goes to show how difficult defending the Premier League title is. Mourinhos men were dreadful and didnt look up to scratch, with their captain subbed at half time. My least confident forecast was the best result (Again!).

This means on LSP, I was up this week (10 pence..) but unfortunately the adaptation of Kellys means i placed more money on the southampton game and thus I am down on this wallet.

LSP: £95.60
Kellys: £87.87

I will be publishing an article soon explaining LSP/Kellys and theories on how to portion your bets, just as a bit of side reading.

One more note: An interesting thing happened this weekend. Of the 7 games the model forecast (remember promoted teams still excluded due to the messy translation of results from championship to premier league), the model predicted the following results:

AVL vs MNU 0-1
SOT vs EVE 2-0
SWA vs NEW 2-0
TOT vs STO 1-0
WHU vs LEI 1-0
CPL vs ARS 0-2
MCI vs CHE 2-1

Firstly, I know thats a lot of clean sheets - typically these are the most common results. What is interesting is that of these results, the model predicted 3 scores out of 7. Even at terrible odds of 6/1, you only need to get one result to breakeven - Ill keep track of the perfect score bet (even with terrible overround) to see if the model is any better at predicting this.

Happy Hunting,

Aquitis.