Gameweek 3- August 22nd

After last week's 3 correct scores, I have decided to post score predictions after my four key value bets. I've been doing a lot of thinking about value bets - basically a discrepancy between my model and the bookmakers price - and while value bets may be identified in equilibrium, its quite likely that during parts of the season when there is a lot of ongoing chance (August, January) this may simply be bookmakers having a better model with more information.

Still, my bets for Gameweek 3:

MNU vs NEW - Home @ 1.36
I really do not like this bet. Apparently Man Utd have an 85% chance of success in this game, meaning this bet has a value of roughly 10%. I prefer backing the outsider but there really isnt that much on this week. Interesting this was picked - ill have to keep an eye on how bookmakers look at teams who have had a midweek game in the european cups going forward.

LEI vs TOT - Home @ 2.6
Now HERE is a good bet! Leicester at a massive 2.6 when Aquitis predicts a 50% chance of winning gives a juicy value of 12%. Oddly the most likely score is 1-1 @ 10.2%, though its clear to see the model really doesn't fancy Spurs' chances away. I would normally take a Draw No Bet on this but the value for the draw is pretty poor on this game so we will stick to the home win.

WBA vs CHE - Over 2.5 @ 2.07
I really dont like this bet. I wont elaborate - just think about the respective managers.
I really really dont like this one.


ARS vs LIV - Home @ 1.64
This week has thrown up some very strange suggestions, none of which I particularly like. But as I said, its slim pickings this week- which is why we have this at a pretty mediocre value of 5.4%. Arsenal should have enough about them to see off Liverpool, but then I'd have said the same about West Ham...

Guys, predictions in full

MNU vs NEW 2-0
CPL vs AVL 1-1
LEI vs TOT 1-1 (But if you rebase it from Ranieri's arrival then a 4-2 victory..haha..)
NOR vs STO n/a (with hardly any data the model suggests 0-2)
SUN vs SWA 0-1
WHU vs BOU n/a (apparently a 40% chance of a 0-0...lets give the promoted teams time)
WBA vs CHE 1-2
EVE vs MCI 1-1 (!!!)
WAT vs SOT n/a (0-0 is 100% chance....)
ARS vs LIV 1-0 though 2-0 is preferred in the non time adjusted model.

Happy Hunting!

Aquitis